CHINA: Fitch revises China Shanshui Cement Outlook

Fitch Ratings has revised China Shanshui Cement’s Outlook to Positive from Stable. The Outlook reflects an “improved competitive landscape in Shandong, Shanshui’s core market and the company’s reduced capex plans,” Fitch said in a statement.

Discipline to stablise selling prices by adjusting production levels by key Chinese cement industry improved in 2011, especially in regional markets with strong concentration like the Shandong Province, Fitch notes. The top two cement producers in this province had over 50 per cent share of cement and clinker sales, of which Shanshui had a 29.5 per cent in 2011.

Fewer acquisition opportunities and the government's tight control in the building of new cement plants have contributed to Shanshui's reduced capex plans. Improved industry profitability has also resulted in smaller cement producers becoming less vulnerable to being acquired and/or prone to heftier valuation.

Fitch may consider upgrading the ratings of Shanshui if the company can maintain its strong performance in 2012. This includes a consolidated gross profit above CNY85/ton; net debt/EBITDA below 2.0x; and capex remaining below CNY4bn. Shanshui's Outlook may be revised to Stable if the company fails to achieve the above in 2012.

BRASIL: Brazilian bidder sees no asset sales in Cimpor buyout

The Brazilian bidder in a takeover offer for Portugal's No.1 cement-maker Cimpor (CPR.LS) does not expect to have to sell any assets if its buyout goes ahead as it hopes, and expects Cimpor to gain scope and global reach as its unit.

Jose Barros Franco, chief executive of Intercement, a subsidiary of Brazil's second-largest construction group Camargo Correa, said in a written reply to questions from Reuters the bid price of 5.5 euros per Cimpor share was "fair", but would not say if the company would consider sweetening the offer.

Portuguese conglomerate Semapa (SEM.LS) has made a proposal to major shareholders in Cimpor (CPR.LS) to try to keep it in Portuguese hands by forming a joint holding company. It does not represent a counter-bid.

"We pay close attention to all manifestations of interest, but we believe that our offer is a good opportunity for all shareholders and will subsequently transform Cimpor in a bigger company than it is today, implying a significant entry of foreign investment to Portugal," Barros Franco wrote.

He denied market talk that Camargo had a pre-agreement with another Brazilian shareholder in Cimpor - the country's largest cement producer Votorantim - to split up Cimpor assets, but did not rule out a deal in the future to jointly manage the company.

Analysts expect Intercement to take over the bulk of Cimpor capital, but say Votorantim is likely to keep its 21.2 percent stake, which would allow it to carve out part of Cimpor's international business later, avoiding problems with Brazil's competition regulator.

"There is no pre-agreement. We believe that our bid is a good opportunity for all shareholders... Still, we can't rule out the possibility of a future agreement to allow for a better management of the company and addressing competition issues in Brazil," Barros Franco wrote.

Camargo holds a 32.9 percent stake in Cimpor.

"For now we do not expect any asset sales... We are at the disposal of the antitrust authorities to provide all the necessary explanations," he said.

Analysts have previously said that Cimpor may have to sell at least one mill to address Brazilian antitrust regulator's concerns. Votorantim would have to sell various plants.

If Camargo Correa took over 100 percent of Cimpor, it would double its market share in Brazil to near 20 percent, reducing Votorantim's dominant lead.

AFRICA: TUNISIA: sales of cement to reach 30,000 tons/day from April 15

''Sales of cement will reach nearly 30,000 tons per day from 15 April 2012,'' said the Ministry of Commerce and Handicrafts in a statement.

The national cement production has resumed its normal pace and even improved. It is currently higher than 24,000 tons per day, according to the Ministry.

"This production volume exceeds the average in previous years and the country's needs in this area", which is likely to keep unchanged the price of a bag of cement, which is set at 6.5 dinars.

In 2011, the cement sector in Tunisia was virtually paralyzed because of strikes and sit-ins, which caused the shutdown of some units (Enfidha cement plant...), and gave free rein to speculation.

Regarding exports, the Department of Commerce reported that the quantity of exported cement has not exceeded 7,000 tons since the beginning of 2012.

INDIA: We expects all-India cement consumption growth at 7.5% in FY12E: ICICIdirect

ICICIdirect while commenting on Cement sector report, ``With expectations of 10% YoY (12% MoM) growth in March 2012, we expect all-India cement consumption growth at 7.5% in FY12E against 4.4% in FY11 and 10.2% in FY10. Cement dispatches have grown 7% during April 2011-February 2012 mainly led by 15% YoY growth during the November-December-January period. The cement demand picked up during the period mainly on account of a low base and increase in off take from construction activities post monsoon.``

However, demand has been subdued during April-October 2011 and grew by just 3.5% YoY as the consumption from the housing and infrastructure segments remained sluggish on account of key issues like rising cost of capital, land acquisition & clearances and unavailability of key raw materials like coal for the manufacturing industry.

The capacity utilization rate is expected to get restored to 77% in FY12E from 87% in FY10. This was on account of 19 MT addition in effective capacity as against incremental demand of 14 MT during the period.

It expect demand growth of 10% YoY in FY13E and utilisation rate to remain at 77% as the incremental capacity of 26 MT would likely to negate the impact of incremental demand of 22 MT.

However, it is expected to start improving from FY14E onwards as incremental demand is likely to keep pace with additions in effective capacities. We expect the utilization rate to be at 80% in FY14E (incremental demand of 27 MT as against incremental capacity of 21 MT).

IRAN: Iran’s cement output grows 8 percent

Iran produced over 66.4 million tons of cement last year, which ended on March 19, showing an 8 percent rise compared with the previous year, IRNA news agency reported.

The output in the last calendar month stood at 5.7 million tons. Iran also produced some 67.6 million tons of clinker last year, up 12 percent year on year.

The Minister of Industry, Mine and Trade Mehdi Ghazanfari announced that the country's current cement production capacity stands at 74 million tons. Ghazanfari added that the figure will reach 110 million tons by 2015.