Even with an economic recovery, construction levels will remain at new floor levels and lead to relatively flat cement consumption until 2014, according to the most recent economic forecast from PCA.
PCA revised its cement consumption forecast to increases of 1.1 percent in 2011, 0.5 percent in 2012, and 7.4 percent in 2013—roughly half of the previous forecast. According to the report, large structural issues exist in each construction sector that will slow recovery.
Recovery for the construction industry is tied to general economic growth and job creation. Job creation will reduce, and eventually eliminate, the adverse impacts of foreclosures, tight lending standards, commercial occupancy, and leasing rates as well as the severity of state fiscal conditions. However, because the impediments to a construction recovery are so large, even if an acceleration in economic growth and job creation occurs on a sustained basis, the benefits will not materialize quickly.
According to the report, nonresidential construction will also remain low until 2013, and lack of assured federal funding will drag down the public sector until 2014.
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