Monday, February 14, 2011

CHINA: China’s Stocks Climb Most in Two Months on Economic Outlook

China’s stocks rose, driving the benchmark index up the most in two months, on speculation January inflation data due tomorrow will be lower than expected and as exports growth exceeded estimates.

Jiangxi Copper Co. advanced among metals producers after overseas shipments rose 38 percent from a year earlier. Citic Securities Co. climbed by the 10 percent daily limit after reporting a profit. Anhui Expressway Co. and Air China Ltd. led gains by toll road operators and airlines after Xinhua News Agency said Railways Minister Liu Zhijun is under investigation. Railcar maker CSR Corp. dropped 1.9 percent.

“The speculation is that the January inflation rate was 4.9 percent, which is lower than the market consensus,” said Li Jun, a strategist at Central China Securities Co. in Shanghai. “That reduces concern the government will need to take further tightening action to cool the economy.” The statistics bureau declined to comment when called.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the bigger of China’s stock exchanges, gained 71.81, or 2.5 percent, to 2,899.13 at the 3 p.m. close, the steepest increase since Dec. 13. The CSI 300 Index rose 3.2 percent to 3,219.14.

Stock markets also advanced across Asia after Japan’s economy shrank less than forecast and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak resigned. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.7 percent, rebounding from its worst week since August.

Annual Gain

The Shanghai gauge has advanced 3.2 percent this year on signs the economy is withstanding curbs on lending and property purchases. The index plunged 14 percent in 2010 after the government ordered banks to set aside more reserves six times this year and boosted interest rates twice to tame inflation. The central bank raised borrowing costs for a third time in four months last week.

The statistics bureau is due to release January consumer price data tomorrow. Inflation last month may have accelerated to a 30-month high of 5.4 percent, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

A measure of material producers on the CSI 300 advanced 3.9 percent. Jiangxi Copper, China’s biggest producer of the metal, added 5.7 percent to 41.01 yuan. Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., the second largest, jumped 7.9 percent to 30.01 yuan.

China’s growth in exports was higher than all 22 economists’ forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey and compared with the median estimate of 22.5 percent. The 51 percent gain in imports, the highest in 10 months, compared with a 27 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

Overtook Japan

China’s gross domestic product surpassed that of Japan in 2010 as the world’s second-largest economy, Japan’s government said. China’s gross domestic product last year was $5.8786 trillion, compared with Japan’s $5.4742 trillion, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo.

Citic Securities, China’s biggest listed brokerage, surged the maximum 10 percent to 13.83 yuan after saying its January net income was 4.22 million yuan ($640,000).

Other brokerages also rose, helping drive an index tracking financial stocks on the CSI 300 up 4.1 percent. Haitong Securities Co. climbed 9.4 percent to 10.37 yuan. China Merchants Securities Co. jumped 10 percent to 20.15 yuan.

Anhui Conch Cement Co. led gains for cement makers after the Shanghai Securities News said domestic demand for the building material may increase this year.

Anhui Conch, China’s biggest cement maker, jumped 8.2 percent to 33.77 yuan. Huaxin Cement Co., the Chinese affiliate of Holcim Ltd., surged the 10 percent daily limit to 36.33 yuan.

Demand for cement may be close to 2.1 billion tons this year, up from 1.87 billion tons of output in 2010, the newspaper reported, citing Kong Xiangzhong, head of China Cement Association.

Minister Probe

Anhui Expressway surged 10 percent to 6.27 yuan. Shenzhen Expressway Co. jumped the maximum 10 percent to 5.46 yuan. Air China, the nation’s largest international carrier, climbed 3.9 percent to 12.20 yuan. China Southern Airlines Co., the nation’s biggest carrier by fleet size, advanced 3.9 percent to 8.99 yuan.

Railways Minister Liu is accused of abusing his position and receiving “a large amount of money” in bribes, Xinhua said, citing the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the Ministry of Supervision.

“The investigation has created doubt among investors about the investment boom on high-speed rail, given the huge amount of spending,” said Li of Central China Securities. “Airlines and toll-road operators would benefit from any reduction in rail spending because the market has been worried about the threat of high-speed railways to their passenger volumes.”

The minister, who has held the post since 2003, has overseen plans to build a 16,000-kilometer high-speed passenger network by 2020. The country’s planned 2 trillion yuan in spending will give it almost as much track by next year as the entire rest of the world, even before the network is completed.

CSR dropped 1.9 percent to 8.38 yuan. China CNR Corp. retreated 2.7 percent to 8.73 yuan, the biggest lowest in three weeks. The companies are the nation’s largest trainmakers.

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